Week 10: Dolphins at Lions plus Weekly Picks

I cannot make any more promises of there being future podcasts.

Not that there won’t be.   I still hope there are 2 podcasts per week from here on out, but so many variables get thrown in and my plans get fucked.

Like going 3 weeks without Calvin Johnson.

Unlike my podcast schedule, the Lions have persevered by going 3-0. That hasn’t mattered to some. ESPN’s power rankings for Week 10 point out that the Lions “didn’t exactly feast” while never scoring more than 24 points in their last 3 games. There was no Johnson (plus varying degrees of health from RBs and TEs)! If you want a real treat, listen to Grantland’s NFL Podcast and witness Bill Barnwell dismiss the Lions on a weekly basis (if you can get past the fact that he sounds like South Park’s Mr. Slave). Jesus Christ!

Speaking of variables and schedule adjustments….London again? We don’t lose a home game, which is fine. I’m not a fan of the shit turf at Wembley and the unknown factor of time change and long flights. It’s the same reason I found the 2013 game in Philly to be fucked. Games shouldn’t be decided on who wore the right shoes, or who can handle strange scheduling arrangements (I’m looking at you, Thursday Night Football). However, my man Griff (@GoBlueGriff on Twitter) points out that it keeps us out of Arrowhead. Great point. Along with Seattle, Green Bay, and New Orleans, Kansas City is not a place you want to visit. Especially when some dickpump from the Guinness Book of World Records breaks out his decibel meter (decibelometer?) for a bunch of people jacked up on beer and Arthur Bryant’s BBQ sauce.

 

Dolphins at Lions Preview

Lions Running vs. Dolphins Defense: The Dolphins are allowing 4.0 yards a carry. Not bad, not good, but the Lions haven’t run for shit. Part of that can be attributed to no TE threat being available lately to stretch out the “men in the box”, and some injuries. A semi-healthy Fauria on the field (doesn’t look good for Ebron to be back this week) may keep a LB occupied, and the return of Reggie Bush COULD mean something, but I’m not seeing a breakout performance coming.

Lions Passing vs. Dolphins Defense: Miami is very strong against the pass, as well. They get very good pressure, which includes Cameron Wake, who may end up being a nightmare. Reiff and Waddle really need to bring their best. Coverage wise, the Dolphins are decent. The x-factor is going to be Johnson. If he is as healthy as he claims to be, we may get what we’ve been waiting for since Week 1. And then there is Tate, who has been a savior in these last few games. And you can throw in the fact that Caldwell stated this week that the TE position will have a place in this offense going forward, so I actually like Fauria to have an impact. Maybe not a big game, but I can see 4 catches for 40-60 yards in his future.

Dolphins Running vs. Lions Defense: The Lions have been a roadblock for running backs. While Lamar Miller has been pretty good for the Dolphins, and the Dolphins line does a good job making holes, Miller isn’t going to get much going today (and he’s a little banged-up). Someone IS going to need to keep an eye on Tannehill. They will run some read-option, and although he doesn’t have a ton of wiggle, he is an athletic guy with long strides that can rack up yards in a hurry if he gets to run a straight line.

Dolphins Passing vs. Lions Defense: We know our defensive line is a group of murderers. The Dolphins O-Line is okay in protection, and that won’t be enough today, but what I’d like to point out is that the best WR for the Dolphins (Wallace) is a deep-threat guy and this secondary has done a great job of not giving up the big play. Slay, in particular, has been a star when it comes to running stride-to-stride with downfield WRs. When it comes to the Dolphins throwing the ball, the only guy I worry about is TE Charles Clay. Don’t be surprised if a couple times today you’re frustrated by a wide-open Clay grabbing a reception for a 1st down on 3rd and long.

Special Teams Notes: Just make your fucking FGs, motherfucker! No 2nd chances this week.

The Lions win if…….they come out of the box on offense humming and Johnson does his thing. It’s at home, I think he is ready to put on a show. If that can happen, and they can force the Dolphins to get too one-dimensional, the defensive line is going to tee-off on Tannehill.

The Lions lose if……they can’t protect Stafford. Stafford has been getting hit a lot this season. There is a big test this week. The offensive line needs to step up, and Stafford will have his favorite weapon back, so he needs to make smart, quick decisions.

Prediction: Lions 31, Dolphins 20

 

Weekly Picks

Last Week: 7-6

Season: 71-60-3

This week: 1-0 (pick made on Twitter, @LionsAnonymous)

Picks are in bold

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
11/9 1:00 ET Dallas -7 Jacksonville
At London
45.5
11/9 1:00 ET At Detroit -2.5 Miami 43.5
11/9 1:00 ET At Buffalo -1 Kansas City 42
11/9 1:00 ET At New Orleans -6 San Francisco 49.5
11/9 1:00 ET At Baltimore -10 Tennessee 44
11/9 1:00 ET Pittsburgh -4 At NY Jets 47
11/9 1:00 ET Atlanta -3 At Tampa Bay 46.5
11/9 4:05 ET Denver -11.5 At Oakland 50
11/9 4:25 ET At Arizona -6.5 St. Louis 43
11/9 4:25 ET At Seattle -9 NY Giants 44.5
11/9 8:30 ET At Green Bay -7.5 Chicago 53.5

Monday Night Football Line

11/10 8:30 ET At Philadelphia -6.5 Carolina 48

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